:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Jun 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. C-class flares were observed from
three main regions: Regions 4105 (S15W46, Ekc/beta-gamma), 4107 (S15W67,
Dao/beta-delta), and 4115 (N21E67, Dao/beta). Region 4105 began to show
signs of decay as it approached the western limb, yet still produced a
C5.8/1f flare, the largest of the period, at 12/1748 UTC. This region
lost some of its leader spots, but stabilized towards the end of the
period. Region 4115 continued to make its way onto the visible disk. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
through 15 June, primarily due to the flare potential from Regions 4105
and 4107, and 4115.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels, while the 
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 15 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to continue at background levels through 15 June, barring
significant activity from Regions 4105, 4107, or 4115.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected continued, yet waning effects of the
negative polarity CH HSS, with possible transient influences mixed in
late in the period. Total field hovered near 9-10 nT throughout most of
the day, before seeing a slight increase to near 15 nT by the end of the
period. Bz ranged between +/-12 nT, and solar wind speeds decreased
slightly from almost 500 km/s to just over 400 km/s, then back up to 500
km/s following the likely transient passage. The phi angle was
predominantly negative with brief excursions into the positive sector.

.Forecast...
A return towards nominal conditions is expected late on 13 June. By 14
June, positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to begin, with a
chance for a weak, glancing blow CME that left the Sun on 8 Jun.
Elevated conditions are likely to linger into 15 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field began the period at G1 (Minor) storming levels,
decreased to unsettled to active levels, then rebounded at the end of
the period to see G1 levels again.

.Forecast...
Primarily unsettled to active levels, with isolated G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) storming conditions are expected early on 13 June, due
to waning negative polarity CH HSS and possible transient effects. On 14
June, G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a slight chance
for G3 (Strong) levels, due to positive polarity CH HSS influence mixed
with possible transient effects from the 8 Jun CME. By 15 Jun,
conditions are anticipated to diminish as CH/CME effects weaken.