:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Feb 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4366 (N14W64,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two M-class flares (R1-Minor) this
period, the largest of which was an M2.8 at 09/0227 UTC. The region
remained the largest and most complex on the disk, but continued to
exhibit signs of decay. New Region 4374 (N10E74, Hsx/alpha) produced a
C6.6 flare at 09/0836 UTC, but was otherwise unremarkable. The remaining
regions were largely unchanged from the previous period. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a chance for
X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater) over 09-11 Feb, primarily due to
the eruptive potential of Region 4366.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 1,893 pfu observed at 08/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
09-11 Feb. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels over 09-11 Feb due to the eruptive potential and
location of Region 4366.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained mildly enhanced this period under
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached 9 nT
and the Bz component varied between +7/-8 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged
between 380-480 km/s throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is likely to become further enhanced on 09
Feb pending the anticipated arrival of a CME (from 03 Feb), combined
with continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Negative polarity CH
HSS influences and any CME enhancements are expected to wane on 10 Feb,
and subside by 11 Feb.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to
ongoing negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 09
Feb due to the anticipated arrival of a CME (from 03 Feb), combined with
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected on 10 Feb as negative polarity CH HSS influences and any CME
enhancements diminish throughout the day. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected to prevail on 11 Feb.